Numbers and data crunching

[fastbackss]

There are some busy stretches coming up for both NASCAR tours in the next month (three races each).

The NWMT has completed 6 (of 14) races so far this season, and the NSWMT has completed 5 (of 11). That would be 43% and 45% respectively. I thought it would be fun to present some numbers, as un-biased as I believe I can, and let the group have at them! (Note – I have rounded as appropriate, so a number like 25.8% is shown as 26%)

I will start with the Southern Tour.

In 2012 there have been 116 total starts (24,22,27,22,and 21) for an average of 23. These are comprised of 32 separate drivers who have each started at least one race.

18 have competed in all five (56%)
1 has run four (3%)
3 have run three (9%)
3 have run two (9%)
7 have run a singular event (22%)

For comparison:

In 2011 there were 45 individual starters (I feel this is skewed partially due to Thompson, however)
16% ran the entire 14 race schedule (7)
36% ran one race of the schedule (16)

In 2010 there were 35 individual starters
29% ran the entire 10 race schedule (10)
20% ran a single race (7)

Onward we move to the NWMT:

In 2012 there have been 167 total starts (29,28,26,26,24,34) for an average of 28. These are comprised of 42 separate drivers who have each started at least one race.

20 have competed in all six (48%)
2 have competed in five (5%)
3 have run four (7%)
1 has run three (2%)
6 have run two (14%)
10 have run a singular event (24%)

For comparison:

In 2011 there were 56 individual starters
25% competed in all 16 (14)
29% ran one race of the schedule (16)

In 2010 there were 59 individual starters
31% competed in all 14 (18)
29% ran a single race (17)

So – any thoughts, comments, questions? I have some, but intentionally left them out so as to not taint the discussion.
-Mike

[csg]

Great post. I love numbers. Well you can clearly see a trend that drivers/cars are supporting the tour less. I think if you expanded your research to MRS you would also find the same trend. In other words, I dont think it is tour specific but the overall economics of the sport. Both series are losing dates and drivers.

[Magicshoes12]

Also, What were the Sunoco Race Fuel Prices for 2010,2011,2012 and Regular Diesel Fuel the haulers use for 10,11,12. Tire Prices for 2010,2011,2012....I think that would be a pretty cool Number to see too...I do have to say fastbackss it is kinda cool to see the break down! Thank you!

[fastbackss]

I think if you expanded your research to MRS you would also find the same trend.

Ask and ye shall receive:
In 2012 there have been 210 total starts in 8 races (26, 24, 35, 24, 23, 24, 21, 33) for an average of 26. Note that I did not check for any DNQ's - it is just starts. These starts are comprised of 51 separate drivers who have started at least one race. There are 7 races remaining.

10 have competed in all eight (20%)
3 have competed in seven (6%)
6 have competed in six (12%)
2 have competed in five (4%)
4 have competed in four (8%)
5 have competed in three (10%)
11 have run two (22%)
10 have run a single race (20%)

for comparison:

In 2011 there were 70 drivers to start a race

6 drivers ran all 15 races (9%)
21 drivers ran a single race (30%)

In 2010 there were 55 drivers to start a race

10 drivers ran all 10 races (18%)
8 drivers ran a single race (15%)

[fastbackss]

I want to include the ROC, but I am not sure exactly how to include it because 2010 and 2011 featured "divisions" plus an overall championship at the end. As such I am leaving them out for now. Here is 2012 - but note this data is slightly skewed by the fact that 2bbl cars are allowed to compete as well.

Seven events of 10 (70%) have been completed.

47 drivers have taken at least one green flag so far. The races have had 26, 26, 24, 23, 20, 32, and 23 cars respectively.

12 drivers have run all seven (26%)
3 drivers have run six (6%)
3 drivers have run five (6%)
1 driver has run four (2%)
4 drivers have run three (9%)
13 drivers have run two (28%)
11 drivers ran one (23%)

[jpj]

Good stuff Mike.
Similar to some of the posts above, from an overall performance standpoint, it would be interesting to see a line chart annual trend of entries/race, new tour teams/year, returning tour teams/year, going as far back as the data is available.
From there, those results could be compared to some of the contributing factors (price of gas, inflation rate, GDP, unemployment, payouts, fees, etc.)

[fastbackss]

jpj,

I agree that would be intriguing. I might compile some of that data in the off-season when I am bored.

As for another previous request...the typical NWMT season runs from the 2nd week of April to the 2nd week of October. As such I ran the retail diesel price (average nationwide) from April 1 through October 31. It reports weekly averages; I have not dumped them into a spreadsheet yet as it is formatted poorly but just grabbed the peaks.
The 2010 low price during that period was 2.899.
The 2010 high price was 3.127.

The 2011 low was 3.721.
The 2011 high was 4.124.

The 2012 low (through 8/1) was 3.648
The 2012 high was 4.148.

[ModTourMan]

Nice job Mike!

[Axel]

The sum of the square roots of any two sides of an isosceles triangle is equal to the square root of the remaining side. Oh joy! Rapture! I got a brain! How can I ever thank you enough?
-The Scarecrow (Wizard of Oz)

Cool stuff fastback! Thanks for posting.

[fastbackss]

Well - now that the season is complete, let's revisit - shall we?

Onward we move to the NWMT:

In 2012 there have been 376 total starts (29,28,26,26,24,34,27,25,21,24,23,31,26,32) for an average of 26.9. These are comprised of 52 separate drivers who have each started at least one race.

16 competed in all 14 (31%)
4 ran 13
3 ran nine
2 ran eight
2 ran six
1 ran five
2 ran four
1 ran three
8 ran two
13 ran a singular event (25%)

For comparison:

In 2011 there were 56 individual starters
25% competed in all 16 (14)
29% ran one race of the schedule (16)

In 2010 there were 59 individual starters
31% competed in all 14 (18)
29% ran a single race (17)

Onto the NWSMT

In 2012 there have been 228 total starts (24,22,27,22, 21, 25, 15, 15, 21, 16, 20) for an average of 20.7. These are comprised of 43 separate drivers who have each started at least one race.

9 have competed in all 11 (21%)
4 have run ten
1 has run eight
2 have run seven
2 have run six
1 has run five
3 ran four
17 ran two
12 ran a singular event (28%)

For comparison:

In 2011 there were 45 individual starters (I feel this is skewed partially due to Thompson, however)
16% ran the entire 14 race schedule (7)
36% ran one race of the schedule (16)

In 2010 there were 35 individual starters
29% ran the entire 10 race schedule (10)
20% ran a single race (7)

MRS:
In 2012 there have been 389 total starts in 15 races (26, 24, 35, 24, 23, 24, 21, 33,25,28,22,26,24,30,24) for an average of 26. Note that I did not check for any DNQ's - it is just starts. These starts are comprised of 68 separate drivers who have started at least one race.

6 competed in all 15 (9%)
2 ran 14
1 ran 13
2 ran 12
3 ran 11
4 ran 9
2 ran 8
5 ran 7
3 ran 6
5 ran 5
3 ran 4
4 ran 3
2 ran 7
19 competed in a singular event (28%)

For comparison:

In 2011 there were 70 drivers to start a race

6 drivers ran all 15 races (9%)
21 drivers ran a single race (30%)

In 2010 there were 55 drivers to start a race

10 drivers ran all 10 races (18%)
8 drivers ran a single race (15%)

(Note I have not included ROC as the information was not updated for the end of the season on the main website here)

After crunching these, I couldn’t help but notice that there appeared to be a general difference between the MRS/NASCAR tours. Both NASCAR tours had very few “in the middle” type participants. You either ran a lot or ran very little. Example, the NWMT – 38% ran more than 13 races while 40% ran two or less. That is very much a bi-modal distribution. There is roughly only 20% of the data population residing in the middle 70% of the possible “slots.” It made me wonder…what about some other touring series?

The WoO LM’s ran 40 races, ALL over the country. 510 drivers attempted at least one race. 434 of them (85%) ran 4 or less. Only 14 ran more than half of the season (20) and of those 11 ran 38 or more! So, I can’t help but think that the “contracted driver” situation affects this dataset. Let’s try one more that is more regional– PASS LM North.

15 races – 89 drivers attempted at least one race. 38 tried one and 11 tried 2 (55% when combined). But only 7 drivers ran the full season, with 1 more that ran all but one race. That combined is only 9%. The PASS series seems to emulate the MRS in its make-up.

Well – any thoughts?
-Mike

[Acadia]

Nice work.

Looks like NASCAR needs to dramatically increase the purses so more cars can run the full season. :D

The frequency distribution is indeed interesting. It shows that there are plenty of cars out there that can't afford to run more than a couple, or a single Tour event. That's where purses are supposed help out.

Your analysis was done using drivers as the basis. Drivers move around a bit, from car to car. Do you think the results would tell something different if cars were used as the basis?